This page is part of a paid partnership between Hilert Group and Ett Case. The goal of the collab is to make Hilbert Group better known among investors. This is not investment advice.
Updated per Q1 2025, 9th aug 2025
Hilbert Group, like any asset manager, can become highly profitable if it grows its Assets Under Management (AUM) to generate substantial management and performance fees above its fixed costs. Hilbert Group calls itself a crypto company and has multiple business legs. We only see realistic near-term positive cash flow from asset management, and therefore focus on that part of the business. According to their own statements, Hilbert is on the verge of profitability and they maintain their ambitious goal of 2B USD in AUM within 2025. This is up from the current 500m+ USD.
The valuation is based on an assumed futures earnings, and added a PE-ratio on the earnings, to get a value. Therefore the asset value(s) will not be weighed in this valuation directly, but as an indirect effect from a higher PE-ratio. Meaning, instead of assuming the potential value of the SYNT-token itself and other potential future increases in asset value (like Coin360 and Nordark), we use a fair PE of 15 instead of 10 or 5. Which all are considered conservative for a growth company.
The assumptions are based on what is possible to have implemented from year-end ’25 and the profits coming from the following year, meaning future earnings in ’26, based on what Hilbert Group has got in place within ’25 as per their own guiding. Potential new income streams or further growth in ’26 is realistic, but not taken into calculation other than in the PE-ratio applied.
XAPO deals
Hilbert Groups has announced that the Xapo fund is expected to get additional inflows of 10,000 BTC (3,000 BTC today). This was expected in June, then July, and is still expected to arrive shortly.
Syntetika
The real-world asset-tokenizer platform is a new and ambitious leg of Hilbert Group. There is little to no visibility in the coming cash flow from the platform. And therefore, it’s hard to value. Luckily, Hilbert is tokenizing its own fund, making the hedge fund more accessible for crypto investors. This will be on a 2/20 fee structure. It’s still early to assume what the inflows are, but based on the tens of thousands of people following the project on Discord and X (yes, actually that many), it’s fair to assume there will be some inflow. In the lack of a better number, we chose USD 300M.
Treasury trading
Our understanding is that Hilbert’s treasury strategy differs from simple buy-and-hold strategies performed by other players in the field, but trading the BTC holding to achieve an access return on the BTC. The Liberty Road Capital Funds has had a historical performance of 30+% return on top of BTC, making the assumption that 20% net (after borrowing cost of 10%) should be feasible. Hence the 20% return assumption.
Debt and convertible
On July 23, Hilbert announced that it has secured a SEK 150 million, 36-month structured financing facility from global investment firm LDA Capital.
The deal includes:
Put option – Hilbert can issue new shares flexibly, drawing capital in tranches based on market conditions to minimize dilution.
Warrants – LDA may subscribe for up to 1,485,000 shares at SEK 14.61 within 36 months.
Effectively, this means that Hilbert can issue new stocks directly to LDA Capital when/if there should be a need for cash. We believe the purpose of a deal like this is to have the flexibility to go after good deals. The downside is that there will be a dilution effect, as with any stock issue. This dilution is not calculated in the current calculations, as we cannot know when or how much it will be.
Risks & Considerations:
Hilbert hasn’t yet reached its $ 2 billion USD AUM target, and performance fees will be critical. There is a long way from today’s break-even level AUM to the year-end goal of 2025. Crypto’s volatility can rapidly change sentiment and valuation. Bitcoin’s price doubling would nearly double AUM organically, but a market downturn could reduce it just as quickly.
Rise in OPEX
The cost of running Hilbert Group has been held low by low salaries and option packages for key employees as compensation for low salaries. There will be some dilution in the years to come from option packages, and we expect the OPEX to rise going forward. As of now, Hilbert can take on more AUM with the personnel they have in place. But a SEK 300m profit company looks at the future differently than the one not making a profit.
Assumptions: Total profit = 303,400,000 SEK • Shares = 82,172,909
| PE | Equity value (SEK) | Fair price / share (SEK) |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1,517,000,000.00 | 18.46 |
| 6 | 1,820,400,000.00 | 22.15 |
| 7 | 2,123,800,000.00 | 25.85 |
| 8 | 2,427,200,000.00 | 29.54 |
| 9 | 2,730,600,000.00 | 33.23 |
| 10 | 3,034,000,000.00 | 36.92 |
| 12 | 3,640,800,000.00 | 44.31 |
| 15 | 4,551,000,000.00 | 55.38 |
| 18 | 5,461,200,000.00 | 66.46 |
| 20 | 6,068,000,000.00 | 73.84 |