Hilbert Group, like any asset manager, can become highly profitable if it grows its Assets Under Management (AUM) to generate substantial management and performance fees. According to their own statements, Hilbert is on the verge of profitability. Their AUM grew significantly in 2024 and is projected to increase further in 2025. Meanwhile, Coin360—Hilbert’s data and analytics arm—is already profitable at an operational level, and with the upcoming subscription model launch in December 2024, Coin360’s revenue is expected to rise.

Targets & Assumptions (Source):

• AUM Goal: 2 billion USD, largely in the Xapo yield fund.
• Coin360 Revenue Target: 10 million USD.
• Peer Pricing: Traditional asset managers often trade at a P/E of ~10. Given the volatility of crypto, we use a more conservative P/E of 5 for Hilbert.
• Management Fee Assumption: 0.5% of AUM.
• Performance Fee Assumption: 10% performance fee on a 5% yield → 0.5% additional.
• Coin360 Margin: 25% of the 10 million USD revenue.

Risks & Considerations:

Hilbert hasn’t yet reached its 2 billion USD AUM target, and performance fees will be critical. There is a long way from today’s break even level AUM, to the year end goal of 2025. Crypto’s volatility can rapidly change sentiment and valuation. Bitcoin’s price doubling would nearly double AUM organically, but a market downturn could reduce it just as quickly.